The Most Difficult Challenge: Diplomacy is No Longer An Option (December 2021)
We are in the midst of a period when the world's attention is drawn warily to developments on the Ukraine-Russia border. While Russia continues to make military and political preparations for aid to separatist groups in eastern Ukraine, NATO is attempting to deter Russia from launching an operation by imposing military and economic sanctions. According to a report by Deutsche Welle, NATO has publicly indicated that all options are on the table in order to avoid a situation similar to the invasion of Crimea (2014) in eastern Ukraine. NATO has even readied 40,000 soldiers ready for war. On the other side, statements from the Kremlin front condemn the West and express strong opposition to Ukraine joining NATO. Finally, President of the Russian Federation Vladimir Putin stated during an extended discussion with the Russian Ministry of Defense that they were prepared for probable conflict scenarios by reacting to US and NATO military activity near Russian borders.
The Most Serious Challenge for Russia
Russian President Vladimir Putin stated that Russia will take appropriate military-technical measures in response to the United States' unfriendly actions, and that they have every right to do so. "If NATO infrastructure continues to approach Ukraine, and US and NATO missile complexes arrive, the flight time to Moscow will be reduced to 7-10 minutes, and to 5 minutes if the hypersonic missile is deployed. This is Russia's most serious challenge" he said. Putin warned that if the West's hostile acts continue, Russia will be forced to adopt military-technical steps, and that they have every right to protect the country's security and sovereignty. Putin went on to say, pointing to the United States as the source of European tensions: "Russia had to respond in some way at every stage. The situation continued to deteriorate at each step. While our ties were cordial, the US supported separatist movements in the North Caucasus, strengthened NATO, and pulled out of missile defense treaty accords. They did it because of the euphoria of the so-called Cold War win and the misunderstanding of the reality at the time. We are currently in a scenario where we must find solutions to a number of issues”, he said.
"When international law and the UN Charter create difficulties for them, they consider all of this outmoded and unneeded," Putin said, pointing out that Western countries operate thousands of kilometers away from their own territory for many reasons, including to maintain their own security. "These manipulations are tiring us out," he remarked.
We Require Assurances
Putin stated, when asked about the security guarantees Russia seeks from the US and NATO, "As you are aware, I advised the US President to begin conversations in order to prepare solid agreements on this subject. He proposed assigning the personnel in charge of this problem. "We have given our versions that exclude the United States' eastward expansion and the deployment of offensive weapons systems to nations neighboring us," NATO said in response to his offer. Long-term, legally enforceable guarantees are required "he stated. Putin said, referring to Moscow's ultimatum "Is this an ultimatum or not?. Obviously not. The plans are currently being discussed by everyone, including the Russian army. We oppose bloodshed; their issues are political. And we only want to handle it diplomatically if security guarantees are provided."
Putin said, adding that if the guarantees are removed and the US deploys its weapons in Ukraine, can pressure Kiev to attack Crimea, "They will deploy hypersonic weapons in Ukraine, and under its protection, they will arm extremists in the neighboring country and allow Russia to invade some Russian regions such as Crimea. We know when they will have it, they are testing it successfully or badly," he added, despite the fact that the US does not yet have a hypersonic missile.
By the way, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Ryabkov has dismissed claims that Moscow is upping the stakes with its security guarantees offerings. "We reject this; the charges that someone has upped the stakes demonstrate that there is no political will to perform genuine work in this critical subject," Ryabkov added. Emphasizing that Russia's initiatives are a preventative step "Moscow is willing to normalize relations with Washington and has made all necessary offers," Ryabkov said. If they do not respond or give a negative response, it suggests they are pursuing a program of purposely breaking ties, maintaining the crisis, and intensifying tensions. We will not allow it.vWorking with a positive, constructive agenda is second nature to us. What we've delivered to the US and NATO is new confirmation that we'll keep acting like this," he said.
Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Aleksandr Grushko said in an interview with Rossiyskaya Gazeta that if NATO countries deploy offensive weapons on Russian soil, Russia will respond accordingly. "For example, if offensive weapons are discovered on NATO countries' territory that can reach our command centers in a matter of minutes," Grushko added, "we will have to establish a proper environment for our partners." The time for a low tone in negotiation with NATO has passed, according to the Russian envoy, but Moscow's calls for guarantees are not ultimatums. Grushko said, emphasizing that Moscow made a call to restart the military communication channel between Russia and NATO, "it is quite hazardous right now that military connections have been cut off. The activation of military communication channels is required for removing exercise areas from the contact border. Must be cooperative work on developing procedures to prevent unintended military incidents, and calculating the minimum permitted meeting distance with warships and warplanes."
Provocation Accusations
Meanwhile, Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu claimed that private American military organizations operating in the Donetsk region are planning a chemical attack in eastern Ukraine. "Storage containers with unidentified chemical components were transferred to the cities of Avdeyevka and Krasny Port to provoke," Russian Defense Minister Sergey Shoigu stated at an extended meeting of the Ministry of Defense's board of directors. According to Russian Ministry of Defense data, there are roughly 120 personnel of American private military corporations training Ukrainian special forces in the Donetsk region. "Military-political tensions continue to escalate in the world," Shoigu said, noting that the US has increased its military presence near Russia's borders. He added that the US troops, which number around 8,000, are stationed in Eastern European countries: "Military-political tensions continue to escalate in the world. On Russia's western and eastern borders, tensions are rising. It is growing its pioneering military presence along its frontiers, the US and Russia said. American troops, numbering around 8,000 soldiers, are deployed on a rotating basis in Eastern European countries”.
General Shoigu said, adding that the West is provoking and harassing military forces on the Ukrainian border, "The United States and NATO are purposefully boosting the size and intensity of military training exercises near Russia. Strategic aircraft are being deployed more frequently in these exercises, and related nuclear missile launches are being carried out against our facilities. Their jets' number of flights near Russian borders has more than doubled." Shoigu stated that he is working on options to use coalition groups against Russia with the participation of Georgia, Moldova, and Ukraine during NATO exercises, and that he is particularly focused on the transfer of troops to the alliance's eastern flank, which includes the continental part of NATO and the United States. He added that NATO and the United States conducted military drills with non-NATO states (Georgia, Moldova, and Ukraine) to test various options for employing coalition groupings against Russia.
Conclusion
The political and military tensions between Russia and the West in Ukraine are causing major concern among both regional countries and international public opinion. Russia sees a NATO-protected military presence in Ukraine as the country's greatest security danger. They state that Ukraine will never cooperate with NATO, that they are adamant about this, and that all diplomatic efforts are being done. According to Russian diplomats, if the West crosses red lines, Russia will use force. The Kremlin's top officials have been appearing on television for the past two weeks, attempting to explain the military and political situation to the general public. This, according to some military experts, suggests that Russia's millitary opeartion will start against Ukraine soon. There are two strikingly altered expressions in the language used by the diplomats. First, in the Ukraine conflict, prominent Russian officials were continually pointing to the Donbass region. However, Ukraine is shown as a direct target in the current terminology. Another issue is that they claim that Kiev is preparing a military attack on Crimea. Despite the fact that Kiev has yet to make a declaration on the matter, this report increases the prospect of major military preparations for the entire country.
NATO and the United States are concerned about the limits of Russia's military operation. The West is expected to keep mute in the face of a limited operation in Donbass. However, it is obvious that Russia's annexation of Donbass following the Crimea is a humiliation to NATO's image and a militarily untenable position. As a result, the most important issue here is to keep Russia's military movements to a minimum. If Russia launches an operation against the whole of Ukraine, as its intelligence agencies have published, it could lead to a major disaster.
Officials from the Kremlin expect that they will have provided all security guarantees to the Western side, that diplomatic initiatives on the Ukraine issue will be completed, and that military and political actions will be made in response to their own security concerns. They claim that the requests made to the West are not ultimatums, but rather security concerns. In addition, the Russian army continues military exercises on the Ukrainian border and continues to send military vehicles to the region.
References
https://ria.ru/20211221/putin-1764785180.html
https://lenta.ru/news/2021/12/22/donbass/
https://www.rbc.ru/politics/21/12/2021/61c1bbfd9a7947745e70ed5b
https://www.vesti.ru/article/2654248
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