Sadık Arpacı

  Uluslararası ilişkiler literatürü, devletlerin davranışlarını rasyonel çıkar hesapları ya da klasik teoriler üzerinden açıklamayı uzun süre temel yöntem kabul etti. Ancak Rusya örneği, bu şematik okumaların çoğu zaman yetersiz kaldığını gösteriyor. 2014’te Kırım’ın ilhakı, 2022’de Ukrayna’ya yönelik geniş çaplı saldırı ve bugün gelinen noktada yaşanan yeni cephe çatışmaları, “Rusya’yı okuyamama” sorununu uluslararası akademi dünyasında defalarca gözler önüne serdi. Pek çok uzman Kremlin’in askeri hamlelerini blöf olarak değerlendirdi, saldırı ihtimalini küçümsedi veya savaşın birkaç haftada biteceğini öngördü. Daha yakın dönemde ise Donald Trump’ın yeniden ABD Başkanı seçilmesiyle barışın hemen tesis edileceğini, hatta Alaska görüşmesi sonrasında sürecin hızlanacağını iddia eden yorumcular öne çıktı. Bu tahminlerin hiçbiri sahadaki gerçeklerle örtüşmedi. Rusya’yı doğru analiz edebilmek için yalnızca diplomatik protokollere, normatif çerçevelere ya da Batı merkezli teorilere y...

 Russian President Putin and French President Macron met at the Kremlin to discuss the Ukraine crisis. Macron's visit to Russia, which has been critical of NATO in recent years and has made important political and economic decisions in the European Union, was closely watched by both Russia and the west, which accuses Russia of "not responding forcefully." During the hours of the Macron-Putin meeting, Chancellor of Germany Scholz met with Biden in the White House, where he was accused of not sending a strong message on the Ukraine problem. The globe was left wondering why there was no message that made people pleased at the summits, and the war dread was heightened even more by the statements issued by Russian President Putin before and after the conference. Distance French President Emmanuel Macron, who came to Moscow to address the Ukraine crisis, was received coldly and distantly in the Kremlin. Macron was held in the Kremlin Palace for 1.5 hours before the meeting, acc...

  We are in the midst of a period when the world's attention is drawn warily to developments on the Ukraine-Russia border. While Russia continues to make military and political preparations for aid to separatist groups in eastern Ukraine, NATO is attempting to deter Russia from launching an operation by imposing military and economic sanctions. According to a report by Deutsche Welle, NATO has publicly indicated that all options are on the table in order to avoid a situation similar to the invasion of Crimea (2014) in eastern Ukraine. NATO has even readied 40,000 soldiers ready for war. On the other side, statements from the Kremlin front condemn the West and express strong opposition to Ukraine joining NATO. Finally, President of the Russian Federation Vladimir Putin stated during an extended discussion with the Russian Ministry of Defense that they were prepared for probable conflict scenarios by reacting to US and NATO military activity near Russian borders. The Most Serious Cha...